As we approach the release of the 2nd Expansion in the Scarlet and Violet Series, prices have generally remained flat for Scarlet and Violet and Sword and Shield Sealed products. Analysis is based on reviewing data from the lowest listed products for sale on the TCG Player website.
Largest Decrease over Past 4 weeks
The Rebel Clash Elite Trainer Box has decreased the most over the last 4 weeks, decreasing from $200 to $169.99, a 15% price decrease. In that period of time, 3 Rebel Clash ETBs have sold over the last 4 weeks in the range of $149.99 to $199.99. This still represents the second most expensive Elite Trainer Box across the Scarlet and Violet and Sword and Shield series, with the Evolving Skies Pokemon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Boxes currently listed at about $194 (averaged across the two different types).
The second largest price decrease comes from the Scarlet and Violet Base Set Booster Box, which decreased from about $115 to $100, a 13% price drop over the last 4 weeks. This is not unusual to see with several of the last expansions of the Sword and Shield Series dropping to around $100 a few months after release. Scarlet and Violet Base Set is the cheapest of any Booster Box across the two most recent series. This is the first time that title has not gone to the Battle Styles Expansion from Sword and Shield since as far back as I’ve been keeping track.
Largest Increase Over Past 4 Weeks
Switching to the best performing over the past 4 weeks, the Celebrations Pokemon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Box has increased from $115 to $128, approximately an 11% increase. There were 24 sales shown over the past 4 weeks. This product is getting close to 2x the initial MSRP, sitting at a 97% increase since the release in October 2021.
The Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box has increased 10% over the past 4 weeks going from just shy of $39 to about $43. This mainly just emphasizes that there have not been much in the way of significant price increases in Sealed Modern products over the past 4 weeks.
Largest Increase OVer Past 6 Months
Looking back to the end of November, several products have seen price increases greater than 30% in those 6 months. The Lost Origin Booster Box leads the field with a 62% increase. The Silver Tempest Boost Box, Rebel Clash ETB, and Evolving Skies Pokemon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Box have all increased over 40% in the past 6 months. The Sword and Shield Base Set Elite Trainer Box, Chilling Reign Booster Box and Elite Trainer Box, Evolving Skies Booster Box and Elite Trainer Box, and Fusion Strike Booster Box have all increased over 30% in the past 6 months.
Items with 100% Return OVer MSRP
The list of items at double their MSRP includes the Sword and Shield Base Set Booster Box, Rebel Clash Elite Trainer Box, Champion’s Path Elite Trainer Box, Evolving Skies Booster Box, Pokemon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Box, and Regular Elite Trainer Box. My assumption is that the Pokemon Celebrations Elite Trainer Boxes (Regular and PC Exclusive) will be the next items to pass the 2X mark.
Final Thoughts
The older sealed products continue to hold their value with slow and steady increases. Evolving Skies has stalled around the $375-$400 mark, it will be interesting to see if it can gain a foothold above the $400 price point.
Looking at the products released in 2022 or later, the Pokemon Center Exclusive Elite Trainer Boxes are listed for the higher percentage above MSRP. Long term it will be interesting to see how these relatively new products perform. Will there be an increased premium due to the smaller quantity or product available or do people default to preferring the Booster Boxes and Standard ETBs?